Mesoscale Discussion 0705NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0246 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024Areas affected...parts of northern into central TexasConcerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 081946Z - 082215ZProbability of Watch Issuance...95 percentSUMMARY...Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms capable of very large hail and a tornado or two are expected over the next several hours from parts of central into northeast Texas.DISCUSSION...Deeper convection is beginning to form along the dryline near San Saba and Mills Counties, with increasing Cu depth extending northeastward along the dryline. A very moist and extremely unstable air mass resides east of the dryline, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. Effective deep-layer shear up to 50 kt with a large cross component to the boundary will favor supercell storm mode, with very large hail expected. A few tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps brief but locally intense, given extreme instability and sufficient low-level shear. An expansive, uncapped warm sector suggests cells may remain severe for a long duration. #txwx #dfwwx #ctxwx #navarrocounty
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47 minutes ago
Forecast Update: We’re still expect scattered storms to develop later today (after 4pm) with some severe storms. Very large hail & damaging winds will be main threats with a lower tornado threat. Here’s the latest timing & locations that need to stay weather aware! #dfwwx #ctxwx
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1 hour ago